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| Revealing the Hidden Links Between Stocks and the Economy |
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| Revealing the Hidden Links Between Stocks and the Economy |
| Scenario: Back to March 2009 Lows | |
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Run This Scenario On Your Portfolio |
| Description: |
| What if the markets revisit the recent March 2009 lows? |
| Outcome: |
| If the market plunges back toward the lows of March 2009, no sector will be safe. Virtually all assets were correlated during that crash, including typically defensive assets like bonds and gold. Only cash, US treasuries, and short positions fared well during the crash. |
| Best Performing Industries In This Scenario: |
| Air Services, Other |
| ETF - Leveraged Bear Market |
| Major Airlines |
| Regional Airlines |
| ETF - Bear Market |
| Worst Peforming Industries In This Scenario: |
| ETF - Diversified Emerging Mkts |
| ETF - Specialty-Energy |
| ETF - Specialty-Real Estate |
| ETF - Specialty-Natural Res |
| ETF - Leveraged Bull Market |
| Value | Scenario Impact | ||
| Airline Traffic Growth: | 0.25 % |
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| Aluminum: | 0.92 $/pound |
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| BDI Shipping Rates: | 1,942.00 (Index) |
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| Commercial Foreclosures: | 8.60 % |
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| Commercial RE Prices: | 1.14 (2001 = 1.00) |
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| Copper: | 3.24 $/lb |
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| Inflation: | 1.10 % |
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| Interest Rates (1yr Treasury): | 0.28 % |
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| Internet Ad Growth: | 7.60 % |
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| Natural Gas: | 4.84 $/MCF |
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| Oil: | 78.11 $/barrel |
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| Purchasing Managers Index: | 56.20 (50+ = Growth) |
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| Residential Foreclosures: | 11.29 % |
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| Retail Sales: | 4.80 % |
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| S&P 500: | 1,101.53 |
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| Steel: | 656.00 $/ton |
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| Traditional Ad Growth: | 0.00 % |
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| US Auto Sales: | 10.40 million |
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| US GDP Growth: | 2.40 % |
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| US Home Sales: | 77.60 (2001 = 100) |
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| US House Prices: | 146.43 (2000 = 100) |
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| US Mortgage Rates: | 4.59 % |
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| USD Strength: | 81.65 (Index Value) |
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