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| Revealing the Hidden Links Between Stocks and the Economy |
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| Revealing the Hidden Links Between Stocks and the Economy |
| Run a Scenario below to see how your portfolio performs, or click on a scenario's name to get a detailed description of the scenario and to see how it impacts different industries, stocks, and levers. | ||
| Scenario Name | Scenario Description | |
Trending Now | ||
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Deflation: US Becomes Japan | What if the debt overhang caused by the housing and credit bubble takes years to overcome, causing a weakened economy and even deflation? |
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Euro Zone Collapse | What if a default in Greece starts a domino effect across the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) countries, leading to multiple defaults? |
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Real Estate: Back To Long-Term Norms | In real terms home prices have hardly appreciated since 1890, with the exception of the bubble since 2000. What if prices came back down to those long term levels? |
Geopolitical & Worldwide | ||
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Conflict In Korea | What if North Korea and South Korea fall back into armed conflict as a result of ongoing instability and aggression by Kim Jong Il's regime? |
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Conflict With Iran | What if the US or its allies engage in armed conflict with Iran? |
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Domestic Terror Attack | What if a major terrorist attack succeeds on a US city? |
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Oil Crash | What if oil prices drop to below $40 per barrel and stay in that range? |
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Oil Spike | What if oil prices rise back above $120 per barrel? |
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Return Of Global Growth | What if global economic growth resumes, particularly in emerging markets? |
Monetary & Banking | ||
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Dollar Crash | What if the US dollar declines even more rapidly against major world currencies? |
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High Inflation | What if dollar weakness or rising energy and commodities prices cause inflation? |
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Return of the Credit Crunch | What if the credit crunch returns, as deleveraging and loan delinquencies grow? |
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Rising Interest Rates | What if interest rates rise back to historical levels or above, with 1-year treasury rates at 5%, and consumer and commercial borrowing rates considerably above that? |
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Stagflation | What if growth is stagnant but prices keep rising? |
Politics & Government | ||
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Greece Crisis Averted | What if the joint IMF/Euro bailout plan works, preventing a sovereign debt default in Greece? |
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Greece Defaults In Isolation | What happens if Greece defaults, but the Euro Zone is able to prevent a domino-effect of defaults throughout the PIIGS countries? How will this affect Europe and the globe? |
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Health Care Costs Decline | Health care cost growth has exceeded inflation for decades. What if strained government budgets or reform reduce cost growth, or stop it altogether? |
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Municipal Bond Crisis | What American cities, and potentially even states, begin defaulting on their debt? |
Real Estate | ||
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China Real Estate Crash | What if real estate crashes in China, slowing growth or causing an outright recession there? |
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Real Estate Double Dip | What if US house prices experience a double-dip, falling for several quarters before finally stabilizing? |
US Market & Economy | ||
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Back to March 2009 Lows | What if the markets revisit the recent March 2009 lows? |
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Double Dip Recession | What if the economy spirals down again in 2010, ending the nascent recovery? |
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Recovery Rally Continues | What if the market continues to rally based on economic recovery expectations? |
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